Experts emphasize the importance of preparedness for mitigating any disruptions that adverse weather might cause to business aviation operations. In some locations, that is easier said than done.
Accurate and timely weather information is paramount in aviation, especially in locations where conditions can suddenly change.
While for FBOs and airports it is instrumental to gain access to the latest advancements in weather forecasting technologies, it is also important to have the right personnel in place to mitigate the impact of adverse weather.
Generally, the most common forms of adverse weather conditions that disrupt business aviation are ground-based, such as low ceilings and visibility, and winter precipitation, such as freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Strong winds can occasionally be a problem on the ground, especially if they create a crosswind issue.
Extreme winter weather
Randall Bass, certified consulting meteorologist, Bass Weather Services shares that winter weather, specifically any type of frozen precipitation, can halt or significantly delay airport operations. Ice on runways can inhibit breaking action, and any ice that accumulates on the aircraft, including frost, must be removed via de-icing actions before the aircraft is allowed to depart.
“If freezing rain occurs, in almost all cases, aircraft should not be flying because of moderate to extreme icing conditions at the surface and low altitudes,” he says.
Aspen is one of the places that has experience dealing with these conditions. Aspen/Pitkin County Airport (ASE) uses an application developed by a local meteorologist to provide a five-day look ahead for weather and numerous FAA and State of Colorado weather cameras to see incoming weather that may be hidden from line-of-sight view or radar by terrain. Daniel Bartholomew, airport director at Aspen/Pitkin County Airport (ASE), says having a local source is critical since the weather can be significantly different than in a location less than five miles away.
“Locally focused weather forecasts also provide more granularity than weather predictions based on national or state level forecasts since they consider the impacts of local terrain,” says Bartholomew.
Iceland is another location with extreme weather conditions. Winters are long and hard, and snowfall and freezing conditions also present challenges, especially for de-icing. Sandra María Ólafsdóttir, FBO manager at Iceland Jet Center, shares that as part of Icelandair, the FBO has the luxury of being supported by the latest
weather forecast from the airline operations control centre (OCC).
“The OCC sends out weather warnings if the weather is forecasted above operational level or might affect the airports or ground handling operation.”
She adds that the country’s distinctive geography enhances the expertise and readiness of the teams. The country is known for rapidly changing weather, particularly during the winter months, and its conditions demand adaptability — a quality the country excels in.
The nation’s resilience in the face of unpredictable weather and natural events, such as volcanic eruptions, speaks to its preparedness and efficient coordination.
A global approach
When juggling multiple locations and clients worldwide, weather preparedness becomes considerably more complex. This situation led globally scattered Signature Aviation to recently launch a 24/7 Network Operations Center (NOC) to continuously monitor current and forecasted conditions using multiple data sources, ensuring we stay ahead of potential disruptions.
Hector Chahin, vice president of safety and security at Signature Aviation, believes that the proactive approach allows his team to adapt swiftly, keeping operations running smoothly for our guests and teams.
“The addition of the NOC brings continuous oversight, proactively anticipating challenges such as weather disruptions, major events, and ATC initiatives to ensure smooth planning and execution,” says Chahin.
James Caron, meteorologist at Caron Weather Consultancy, thinks that airports and FBOs can always better prepare for sudden and severe weather disruptions.
“They can invest in early-warning systems, emergency response plans, and backup power solutions,” he says.
In essence, a FBO’s goal is to predict disruptions with enough lead time to adjust schedules, proactively communicate with guests, and implement operational plans to minimize impact.
For Chahin, the prime example was their preparation for Hurricane Milton, which ensured not only operational continuity but also readiness to support community response efforts.
“By leveraging advanced forecasting, we identified a safe operating window before the storm, allowing us to secure facilities and aircraft, manage a surge in departures, and prepare for post-storm recovery efforts,” he says.
Specific protocols and checklists, established procedures, and advanced planning through forecast analysis are the precursors to any weather response, while communications between the airport team regarding staff availability, equipment readiness, and supply status are also very important.
The Aspen Airport spends an entire week prior to the winter season to train and re-familiarize themselves with equipment and procedures. This is internally referred to as Snow Week.
“The facility also has monthly discussions with all tenants and stakeholders during the year to discuss events and make adjustments to procedures as needed. We always try to find better methods to ensure readiness and application,” says Bartholomew.
ASE has a full complement of equipment such as blowers, sweepers, plows, friction testers and supplies including de-ice materials and sweeper bristles. It is also the only airport with an FAA grant-funded snowcat. This piece of equipment allows the airport to manage ever-increasing snowbanks within the runway safety area.
Furthermore, the heavy reliance on aircraft de-icing combined with frequent road closures makes the timely disposal of spent de-icing fluid paramount to continued winter operations. Bartholomew says that all spent de-icing fluid is captured in a set of underground storage tanks. These tanks require regular service to dispose of the contents to a third-party tanker truck. They also need to be creative with mitigation efforts, and sandbags are one protection measure. The current passenger terminal was constructed with the aircraft apron sloping toward the facility, and during occasional mountain thunderstorm events, excessive rain can cause laminar water runoff to bypass trench drains and diversion channels.
“This quickly sends runoff toward entry doors into the terminal. Without the immediate deployment of sandbags, the terminal will flood. This condition will be remedied when a new passenger terminal comes online near the end of the decade,” he says.
Ólafsdóttir emphasizes that they employ a range of strategies to ensure continuity of operations during extreme weather conditions such as blizzards, volcanic ash events, and other severe weather, mainly to ensure runways, taxiways, and aprons are cleared of snow promptly.
They provide de-icing and anti-icing services to keep aircraft surfaces free from ice, ensuring safe take-off and landing. They rely on advisories from meteorological and geological agencies to monitor volcanic ash clouds and their movements and disseminate significant meteorological information (SIGMETs) and NOTAMs to inform pilots of affected areas.
Ólafsdóttir’s team also turns aircraft with the nose towards the wind to avoid damage, uses tie-downs if needed, and ensures that all ground equipment is properly secured to prevent damage or injury, which is essential.
“Our teams have contingency plans for extreme weather scenarios, ensuring quick and effective responses. For example, we maintain backup power systems to ensure continuous operations during power outages,” she adds.
Chahin shares that as a global operation, their NOC and team members work around the clock to maintain operational continuity. Investments in backup power, network connectivity, and resource allocation ensure uninterrupted service, even in extreme conditions.
A notable example is their Asheville Regional Airport (AVL) location, which became the central hub for the humanitarian response in Western North Carolina. “During a critical weather event, we facilitated operations for C-130s, military helicopters, and search-and-rescue aircraft while supporting FEMA’s on-ground efforts, demonstrating our ability to adapt and serve communities in times of crisis,” he says.
Technological advances
Bass states that several advancements are underway that will benefit aviation, but most are still a couple of years away from being implemented.
He adds that the biggest advancement is the use of satellite capabilities to measure and analyse the weather.
Commercial weather companies are now flying and operating their own weather satellites that can provide measurements of temperature and humidity throughout
the atmosphere.
“Other planned advancements that the FAA is developing are new improvements to turbulence forecasts that are at a higher spatial resolution and will provide the first forecasts of convectively induced turbulence,” he says.
Regarding the use of AI, Bass believes it’s still some years away regarding good forecasts of severe weather. He’s heard claims that AI forecasts better than the current physics-based weather models. Still, it’s typically been about temperature forecasts for a certain area or region a few days in advance.
However, there have been some attempts to integrate Machine Learning (ML) and AI into some analysis and forecasting capabilities. “Massachusetts Institute of Technology – Lincoln Lab has been using ML for years in a capability called the Offshore Precipitation Capability (OPC) developed for the FAA,” he adds.
Equally in terms of emerging technologies that will further revolutionize aviation weather forecasting, Caron believes that quantum computing, AI-enhanced simulations, and advanced atmospheric sensors could improve forecasting.
He would like to see improvements in current weather prediction tools for aviation. “Faster updates, higher accuracy in microclimates, and better AI-driven severe weather alerts would be ideal.”
Chahin also thinks that advancements in AI-driven predictive analytics, high-resolution satellite imagery, and machine learning models will significantly enhance weather forecasting accuracy over the next decade.
“Business aviation will benefit from improved real-time data integration, enabling faster, more precise decision-making to mitigate weather-related disruptions,” he says.
Some people in the sector believe that weather forecasting technology in business aviation will become more precise, predictive, and integrated, driven by advancements in AI predictive analytics, satellite technology, and real-time data processing.
Room for improvement
While AI-based enhancements are more than a decade away, there are still many things airports and FBOs can do to support weather monitoring today. For instance, while not AI-driven, ASE recently completed a solicitation for a feasibility study on implementing advanced wind monitoring and notification equipment at the airport.
“We anticipate this study to be completed by the end of 2025. The results of this feasibility analysis will reveal the next steps. Several successful and unsuccessful aborted operations are driving this effort due to changing wind conditions,” says Bartholomew.
He stresses the importance of safety in his recommendations for aviation professionals flying into Aspen. Due to the combination of unique terrain and sometimes extreme weather conditions at ASE, the airport encourages all aircraft operators to receive
ASE-specific training (simulator or actual) for flight operations in advance of operating at the facility.
“Pilots should also ensure that their aircraft is able to safely navigate minimum safe crossing altitudes (MSA) along anticipated flight routes. In the Aspen area, MSAs can be as high as 16,000 feet MSL. Finally, all pilots should know their limits and comfort level for operating in such conditions,” he adds.
Infrastructure expansion and modernization are also important parts of the puzzle. Some companies are investing in constructing new hangars and modernizing existing facilities to enhance their resilience against extreme weather.
For Ólafsdóttir, it all starts by establishing a prepared workforce. “Our company has a strong safety culture, and all staff received training on how to react to different scenarios, such as adverse weather or volcanic eruptions,” she says.
Bass has a few that come to mind regarding meteorological improvements for the future. He says that flying a hyperspectral sounder on geostationary weather satellites to have data throughout the atmosphere would vastly improve our convective weather forecasting, especially in the 0–6-hour time frame.
Second, more non-traditional sensing tools like LIDAR, cameras, liquid water equivalent sensors, and other low-cost solutions to monitor the atmosphere; third, more weather data in the upper Troposphere and Stratosphere, generally between 40,000 – 60,000 feet; and fourth, weather models with higher special and temporal resolution.
“The combination of these improvements will ultimately help the business jet community. The more data we have at the very low levels, the better our forecast models will be at all altitudes. We’d see better wind forecasts in the upper levels, better convective weather forecasts, and better turbulences forecasts,” he says.
Chahin says investing in the right talent and technology to enable swift, informed decision-making. “Establish clear processes and contingency plans, ensuring they are regularly trained and practiced. Effective communication and collaboration across teams will be critical to maintaining operational resilience in the face of severe weather.”
